Market Overview Trade issues were once again a focal point for capital markets during May. While investors came into the month optimistic that a deal with China was nearing completion, things appear to have taken a significant... Read more »

After enjoying the stock market’s advance in each consecutive month so far in 2019, over the past week investors hit a speed bump, as U.S.-China trade issues have returned to weigh on sentiment. Headlines and signals emanating... Read more »

Market Overview Economic conditions in China appear to be improving. In March, the manufacturing PMI returned to a level indicative of expansion for the first time in 4 months, and factory output reached its strongest level since... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks enjoyed a strong start to the year, as the S&P 500 advanced about 13.7% during the 1st quarter. We believe that optimism regarding a potential US China trade deal and an increasingly dovish Federal... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks moved higher during February, with the S&P 500 returning 3.2% for the month. We believe that expectations for a favorable resolution to US/China trade disputes and dovish signs from the Federal Reserve... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks rebounded from a difficult end to 2018 with a strong 8% advance in January 2019. Markets were buoyed by a dovish Federal Reserve and positive press reports regarding trade negotiations between the US and... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks fell sharply to close out the year, with the S&P 500 declining by about 9% during December and approximately 13.5% for the fourth quarter of 2018. Weak global economic data, continuing trade tensions,... Read more »

Market Overview: Despite turbulence in trade negotiations and Italian politics, US stocks enjoyed a strong May, with the S&P 500 advancing 2.2%. With seemingly improved economic activity following a subpar first quarter of... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks logged modest gains in April, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4%. While the economy continues to expand and earnings have been strong, we think some investors are concerned that the flattening yield curve... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks were unable to sustain the strong gains achieved during the start of the year, with the S&P closing out the first quarter with a 1.2% decline. While strong corporate earnings buoyed investor spirits,... Read more »

Market Overview Volatility returned to markets in full force in February, and the reversal of some very crowded trades led to a 3.7% decline for the S&P 500. Macroeconomic fundamentals however, remain sound, in our view.... Read more »

Market Overview: Stocks began the year with considerable strength, as the S&P 500 returned 5.7% for January. Investors appeared to key in on robust global growth and healthy US corporate profits. While we are keeping a close... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks moved higher to close out the year, as the S&P 500 climbed 6.6% during the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment was boosted by economic data that continued to surpass expectations. Markets also reacted... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks continued to move higher in November, with the S&P 500 returning just over 3% for the month. Healthy economic data and optimism over tax reform helped drive these gains. A flattening yield curve,... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks enjoyed a strong October, as the S&P 500 returned 2.3% for the month. Investors were heartened by improving economic conditions and a positive start to third quarter earnings season. Despite... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks enjoyed a solid third quarter, with the S&P 500 advancing almost 4% for the period. Healthy corporate earnings and strong international economic activity helped boost market sentiment, and the extension... Read more »

Market Overview US stocks were largely unchanged in August. Several key economic data points came in ahead of expectations, perhaps indicative of improving business conditions, at least in certain areas of the economy. The... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks enjoyed a solid second quarter, as the S&P 500 rose 3.1% for the period. Improving economic conditions internationally and strong US corporate earnings helped to offset concerns surrounding stubbornly... Read more »

Market Overview Healthy US corporate profits and positive international economic data helped stocks to generate modest gains in May. Markets were resilient despite continued turbulence from inside the Beltway and pronounced... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks showed resiliency during April as the market was able to generate modest gains despite some disappointing economic and inflation data. Sentiment was buoyed by healthy corporate earnings and a favorable... Read more »

Market Overview Promising economic data and an improving corporate earnings backdrop helped to boost equities during the first quarter. Stocks began the year on a strong note, with the S&P 500 returning over 5% for the... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks enjoyed a strong February, as the S&P 500 returned nearly 4% for the month. Investors were heartened by healthy domestic economic data, particularly regional manufacturing surveys which came in at... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks moved higher during January as investors were heartened by healthy economic data coming out of both the US and Europe. Politics continued to be a focal point for markets at the outset of the Trump... Read more »

Market Overview Markets took their cues from the U.S. presidential election during the fourth quarter. Likely surprised by the outcome, investors added to cyclical holdings while paring back on income-oriented securities. While... Read more »

Market Overview The initial equity market reaction to President-elect Trump’s victory has been positive, driven by expectations for stepped-up stimulus initiatives and regulatory reform. Stocks were also buoyed in November by... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks declined in October as sovereign bond yields resumed their march higher and investors grew cautious ahead of the U.S. election. A historic month for M&A activity and decent earnings were not enough to... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks rose modestly during the third quarter, as markets proved to be resilient despite mixed economic data, a run up in sovereign yields, and concerns about the European banking sector. In our view, however,... Read more »

Market Overview Markets were relatively quiet during August, with trading volumes quite low and stock prices little changed for the month. Central banks were in the headlines, as the Bank of England took new stimulative measures... Read more »

Market Overview Equity markets advanced in July, as investors were heartened by the relative stability across global financial markets in the immediate aftermath of Brexit. Sentiment was also likely buoyed by the significant... Read more »

Market Overview The results of the UK referendum, in which the nation’s citizens voted to exit the European Union, impacted capital markets around the world. European stocks were hit hard, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index falling... Read more »

It has been nearly a week since the historic vote by the British to leave the EU, and after two days of intense selling pressure on stocks globally, as well as a historic drop in the pound’s value, equity markets have rebounded... Read more »

As of the close on Friday, June 24th the S&P 500 index was down about -3.6%. The market was up about 1.3% yesterday, so we're giving back that gain and are down about another 2.3% on top of it. We do not believe this is a... Read more »

As the first half of 2016 draws to a close, investors are assessing the odds for economic growth to rebound from the first quarter’s surprisingly weak GDP report. We have seen a variety of forecasts which indicate that the second... Read more »

Market Overview Entering May, market expectations were quite low regarding the potential for a near-term interest rate hike. Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting however, investor... Read more »

During the first quarter of 2016, we began purchasing shares of companies which we believe to be undervalued relative to their own historical valuation range as well as to the overall market. In March we published a blog on this... Read more »

Market Overview A decent start to first quarter earnings season, oil’s continuing rebound, and positive economic data out of China appeared to boost investor sentiment during April, enabling stocks to generate modest gains for... Read more »

Market Overview Despite finishing the quarter with modest gains of approximately 1%, the market was quite volatile to begin the year. The S&P 500 fell by over 10% through the middle of February before rebounding strongly in... Read more »

In the first six weeks of 2016, investors grew increasingly concerned about the possibility of a U.S. recession. Their fears were not driven by weakening consumer demand at home, but instead from the spillover of slowing growth... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks rebounded sharply during the latter part of February, erasing losses from earlier in the month and leaving major indices largely unchanged for the period. We believe that investors were heartened by... Read more »

The S&P 500 endured its worst-ever first five trading days to start a year, declining by about 6% and falling into correction territory for the second time since last August. With the correlation between stocks and oil prices... Read more »

Based upon research we follow as well as our general market observations over the past several days, we believe many securities and commodities appear to be priced as if it is more likely than not that the U.S. is entering a... Read more »

For the last two years we have called out a slowing China as a key risk to the global capital markets, given its size and connections to the other major global economies. Recent events have once again brought this risk to the... Read more »

Market Overview After several years of holding interest rates near zero, the Federal Reserve commenced liftoff with a 25 basis point rate hike during its December meeting. We continue to believe that an increase in rates from... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks were largely unchanged in November, as the S&P 500 advanced just 0.3%. Signs of weakness emerged in the consumer space and several retailers reported discouraging third quarter earnings. However, with... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks enjoyed a strong October, as the S&P 500 advanced over 8% for the month. Markets reacted well to positive news coming out of Europe and China. While we maintain a balanced outlook on equities, we... Read more »

Market Overview The market had a challenging third quarter, with the S&P 500 falling by over 6%. In our view, turbulence out of China and an uncertain monetary and political environment in the U.S. rattled investors. While we... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks tumbled in August, as investors grew more concerned about the Chinese economy and the nation’s related financial market volatility. In the U.S. however, the economy showed marked signs of strength. While we... Read more »

Recent events overseas have conspired to cause investor skittishness and a stock market selloff in the U.S. In our view, while the level of uncertainty has risen, there is no reason to panic and exit stocks. We believe the U.S.... Read more »

Market Overview The S&P 500 fared well in July, advancing slightly below 2% for the month. Investors appeared to be encouraged by progress made in the Greek bailout negotiations, and by consistent messages from the Federal... Read more »

Market Overview U.S. economic activity appears to have rebounded during the second quarter after a lackluster start to the year. We believe that improving labor market conditions are helping to revive consumer spirits. Despite... Read more »

With China’s two major stock market indices falling more than 30% over the past month, investors may question whether this signals an economic decline. In context, we do not see China’s swoon in stock prices as a harbinger of... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks moved higher in May, with the S&P 500 advancing 1.3% for the month. We believe investors were heartened by improving economic data, particularly from the labor and housing markets. It was government... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks moved higher in April as investors turned their attention to first quarter earnings season, which thus far has come in significantly ahead of muted expectations. With nearly 75% of S&P 500 companies... Read more »

Market Overview In recent years central bankers have played starring roles in the capital markets, and our view is that things were no different during the first quarter. The ECB launched its long awaited quantitative easing... Read more »

On Thursday, stocks fell for a fourth consecutive day as geopolitical issues re-emerged on the heels of mixed economic data and weak earnings reports. Saudi Arabia led a coalition of ten nations including the six members of the... Read more »

Market Overview After a weak start to the year, the market rebounded in February with the S&P 500 gaining 5.5% in its best month since October 2011. Oil prices stabilized, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, Greece... Read more »

Market Overview Investors had much to consider in the first month of 2015, with a number of big price changes occurring simultaneously across different areas of the market. Numerous central banks took policy actions, the 10-year... Read more »

After reaching a new high on 12/5/14, the equity market declined 5% through 12/16/14. As oil prices continued to decline, investors became concerned about potential spillover effects, which include disinflation in developed... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks had a very strong November, as the S&P 500 returned 2.7% for the month. In our view, global policy actions helped drive these gains. It appears more likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) will... Read more »

As measured by the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the price of oil plummeted approximately 31% from 6/20/14 through 11/13/14 and is down about 20% year over year through 11/21/14. Reasons for the sharp decline include... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks returned a solid 1.2% in October, but it was quite a wild ride. At its lowest intraday point, the S&P 500 declined nearly 10% from its prior peak – only to roar back and close the month at another... Read more »

“What is going on with the stock market, and what should I do about it?” That is a common question we are hearing these days. Even as professional investors, it is very difficult to specify why the market is acting so poorly or... Read more »

Investors have experienced increased market volatility over the past two weeks, with new information perhaps forcing the market to reassess its direction. The S&P 500 declined 1.5% on Tuesday on concerns about a global growth... Read more »

Market Overview The market had a strong August, with the Russell 3000 returning just over 4% for the month. In our view, positive economic data in the U.S. and heightened expectations for more forceful policy actions by the... Read more »

Market Overview Stocks fell in July, with the Russell 3000 declining approximately 2% for the month. In our view, more stringent economic sanctions against Russia from both Europe and the U.S. contributed to this decline. Other... Read more »

Roosevelt’s Energy Arbitrage theme, our largest and one of our oldest, has demonstrated its persistence and secular characteristics over time. The theme continues to expand its reach to many parts of the US economy and even... Read more »

The stock market had a solid first half of 2014, with the S&P 500 Index appreciating 7%. This follows a torrid 32% advance in 2013 and a total return of 137% over the last five years. Presently, market volatility is at its... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team At Roosevelt Investments, our equity investment process is guided by a thematic framework. One of our foundational beliefs is that thematic drivers may act as a catalyst for a company’s... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team The financial markets are showing signs that companies are feeling optimistic about the direction of the economy. Indeed, a leading survey of companies seeking to measure confidence in the... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team One aspect of our Rebuild and Retool theme is our expectation that after several years of underinvestment following the financial crisis, corporate America may be poised to boost capital... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team In recent weeks, investors have witnessed notable underperformance in stocks classified as growth vs. those classified as value. Portfolio managers with a growth skew to their holdings have... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team You will hear more and more about the Internet of Things, or “IoT,” as it is called. Thermostats, front doors and coffee makers that can be controlled with a smartphone. Collars for pets... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team The majority of US corporations have by now reported their fourth quarter earnings, and by and large the results were positive, in our view. Aggregate earnings grew by nearly 9% compared... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team We think Shareholder Activism has become a serious market-moving event over the past few years, generally cheering shareholders and fomenting significant trading activity. In our view,... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team The past few weeks have seen volatility in the world financial markets as a number of emerging markets are experiencing political and economic stresses and weakening currencies, the most... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team The majority of last year’s stock market appreciation was a function of rising valuation multiples. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the S&P 500 expanded from approximately 12.5 at... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team After months of speculation, the Fed announced that it will finally begin to taper its asset purchases beginning in January. Our take is that despite this reduction in QE, the overall... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team As part of the current economic recovery, we expected to see a trend toward increased corporate capital expenditures (capex). However, a more nuanced picture has recently emerged indicating... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team In the financial press we have recently noted a number of articles using the word “bubble” to describe the current state of affairs in the stock market, including a recent cover article in... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Following a more cautious stance this summer, we have had a bullish outlook on equities since mid-September. The underpinnings for this view include: (1) slow and steady U.S. economic... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Computer generated prototypes. Software that, with a few tweaks, can create an enormous variety of things. Highly automated milling machines that can produce parts quickly and efficiently... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team The deal reached to reopen the government and temporarily raise the debt ceiling removes a key risk factor which could have caused dislocations throughout global capital markets. Though the... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team An increasing number of companies are currently involved in or considering corporate spinoffs of a part of their operations. While there are numerous methods to achieve a separation of... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity and Fixed Income Teams In August 2011, the U.S. sovereign debt rating was downgraded to AA by Standard and Poor’s and the debt ceiling was raised on the very day that the U.S. Treasury predicted... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Today the Federal government has shuttered due to the inability of Congress to agree on a spending bill. By itself, we do not view this as being a significant issue. In fact, there have been... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team We believe that the risk environment has recently changed materially due to three events. First, the risk that the U.S. launches a military strike against Syria in the near term appears to... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team With Larry Summers withdrawing his candidacy for Fed Chairman, it appears that Janet Yellen is now the leading candidate to succeed Ben Bernanke. We think that she would be a good choice. As... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team The release of the August non-manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) was in Wall Street parlance a huge upside surprise. It came in at 58.6, well above expectations of 55 and marked... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Recent data indicate that the U.S. economy continues to grow at a slow and steady pace of approximately 2%. Global central banks continue to provide substantial support to capital markets... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Mexican President Pena Nieto has proposed constitutional amendments to end the state’s monopoly on energy production by allowing foreign participation in the oil, gas, and electricity... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team In our view, the winding down of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program (“tapering”) will not happen until the labor market improves, below-trend inflation returns to 2% driven by... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Net domestic fixed investment consists of investments in physical assets such as new houses or new factories that are held for one year or more, less any depreciation of existing fixed... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Over the past month, the stock market has been choppy and has given back some of its year-to-date gains. The sparks for this pullback include Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments on May 22nd... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Computer generated prototypes. Software that, with a few tweaks, can create an enormous variety of things. Highly automated milling machines that can produce parts quickly and efficiently... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Equity markets have surged this year, led by mostly defensive sectors such as Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Staples. Notably absent has been the Technology sector, although in recent... Read more »

Thoughts from our Domestic Equity Team Many of the world’s major economies are operating under divergent policies. Governments are taking actions to reduce budget deficits while at the same time their central banks are flooding... Read more »

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team Haruhiko Kuroda, the newly appointed Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), made a strong initial impression on capital markets during his first policy meeting last week. Expectations were... Read more »

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team On February 20th, the Fed released minutes from its most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which took place in late January. The release of the FOMC minutes contributed to... Read more »

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team As we approach the end of February it is becoming increasingly likely that the federal spending cuts commonly known as the sequester will go into effect as scheduled on March 1st. Media... Read more »

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team The National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) recently published a draft climate assessment report, engaging over 240 authors in its creation. Their conclusion... Read more »

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team Equity correlations are falling considerably as investors shift their attention from broad macro events to company-specific fundamentals. We find this to be encouraging for a couple of... Read more »

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team A recent Wall Street Journal article(1) highlighted the ongoing shift by equity investors from actively managed mutual funds to passively managed exchange-traded funds. The drivers of this... Read more »